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Atletico Atlas vs Dock Sud — Primera C 2026

Atletico Atlas
Atletico Atlas
FT
1 – 2
Dock Sud
Dock Sud
N. Perez 31'
B. Chavez 65', 28'
8/29/2021Primera CPrimera C · Apertura - 7Estadio Ricardo Puga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Atletico Atlas36%
×Draw29%
Dock Sud36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Atlas
1.14
Dock Sud
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 64 away

creates per match

Atletico Atlas
1.22
Dock Sud
1.19

allows per match

Atletico Atlas
1.09
Dock Sud
1.05

finishing

Atletico Atlas+0.00on par
Dock Sud+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Atlas ↓

Dock Sud →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atletico Atlas or draw
64%
Atletico Atlas or Dock Sud
71%
Draw or Dock Sud
64%

Winning margin

Atletico Atlas wins by 2+
15%
Dock Sud wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Atletico Atlas 1+ goals
68%
Atletico Atlas 2+ goals
32%
Atletico Atlas 3+ goals
11%
Dock Sud 1+ goals
68%
Dock Sud 2+ goals
32%
Dock Sud 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Atletico Atlas (draw refunded)
50%
Dock Sud (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Atlas at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.09 · 103 matches

Dock Sud away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.05 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Atlas attack 1.22 + Dock Sud defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.14

Dock Sud attack 1.19 + Atletico Atlas defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Atletico Atlas scores more
36%
level
29%
Dock Sud scores more
36%

Atletico Atlas at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Atletico Atlas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
B. Chavez
31'
N. Perez
65'
B. Chavez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Atlas vs Dock Sud

Dock Sud beat Atletico Atlas 2-1 in Primera C on August 29, 2021.

Goals: B. Chavez (28', 65'), N. Perez (31').

The match was played at Estadio Ricardo Puga in General Rodríguez, Provincia de Buenos Aires.