Atlético Astorga 0–0 Real Ávila: Result & Stats

Atlético Astorga

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Ávila

4/2/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 30Estadio La Eragudina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Atlético Astorga44%

×Draw28%

Real Ávila27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético AstorgaExpected goals in this matchReal Ávila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.95

Atlético Astorga

1.29

Real Ávila

0.95

Atlético Astorga creates 36% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 76 away

1.68

creates per match

1.14

0.77

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Atlético Astorga

1.68

Real Ávila

1.14

allows per match

Atlético Astorga

0.77

Real Ávila

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Astorga+0.00on par

Real Ávila+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Astorga ↓

Real Ávila →

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Atlético Astorga or draw

73%

Atlético Astorga or Real Ávila

72%

Draw or Real Ávila

56%

Winning margin

Atlético Astorga wins by 2+

20%

Real Ávila wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Atlético Astorga 1+ goals

72%

Atlético Astorga 2+ goals

37%

Atlético Astorga 3+ goals

14%

Real Ávila 1+ goals

61%

Real Ávila 2+ goals

25%

Real Ávila 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Atlético Astorga (draw refunded)

62%

Real Ávila (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Astorga at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.77 · 93 matches

Real Ávila away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.91 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Astorga attack 1.68 + Real Ávila defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.29

Real Ávila attack 1.14 + Atlético Astorga defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atlético Astorga scores more

44%

level

28%

Real Ávila scores more

27%

Atlético Astorga at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atlético Astorga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Atlético Astorga 0–0 Real Ávila

Atlético Astorga and Real Ávila drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Eragudina in Astorga.

Atlético Astorga vs Real Ávila — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Atlético Astorga 0–0 Real Ávila