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Atlético Astorga vs La Granja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Atlético Astorga
Atlético Astorga
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
La Granja
La Granja
3/7/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 30Estadio La Eragudina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Atlético Astorga66%
×Draw21%
La Granja13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Astorga
1.94
La Granja
0.73

Atlético Astorga creates 166% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 31 away

creates per match

Atlético Astorga
1.68
La Granja
0.68

allows per match

Atlético Astorga
0.77
La Granja
2.19

finishing

Atlético Astorga+0.00on par
La Granja+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Astorga ↓

La Granja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Atlético Astorga or draw
87%
Atlético Astorga or La Granja
79%
Draw or La Granja
34%

Winning margin

Atlético Astorga wins by 2+
40%
La Granja wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Atlético Astorga 1+ goals
86%
Atlético Astorga 2+ goals
58%
Atlético Astorga 3+ goals
30%
La Granja 1+ goals
52%
La Granja 2+ goals
17%
La Granja 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Atlético Astorga (draw refunded)
83%
La Granja (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Astorga at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.77 · 93 matches

La Granja away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.19 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Astorga attack 1.68 + La Granja defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.94

La Granja attack 0.68 + Atlético Astorga defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Atlético Astorga scores more
66%
level
21%
La Granja scores more
13%

Atlético Astorga at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Atlético Astorga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Atlético Astorga 4–1 La Granja

Atlético Astorga beat La Granja 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio La Eragudina in Astorga.