Atlético Astorga 0–0 Cristo Atlético

Atlético Astorga

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cristo Atlético

2/10/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 20Estadio La Eragudina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Atlético Astorga42%

×Draw28%

Cristo Atlético30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético AstorgaExpected goals in this matchCristo Atlético

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.06

Atlético Astorga

1.31

Cristo Atlético

1.06

Atlético Astorga creates 24% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 80 away

1.68

creates per match

1.36

0.77

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Atlético Astorga

1.68

Cristo Atlético

1.36

allows per match

Atlético Astorga

0.77

Cristo Atlético

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Astorga+0.00on par

Cristo Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Astorga ↓

Cristo Atlético →

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atlético Astorga or draw

70%

Atlético Astorga or Cristo Atlético

72%

Draw or Cristo Atlético

58%

Winning margin

Atlético Astorga wins by 2+

19%

Cristo Atlético wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Atlético Astorga 1+ goals

73%

Atlético Astorga 2+ goals

38%

Atlético Astorga 3+ goals

14%

Cristo Atlético 1+ goals

65%

Cristo Atlético 2+ goals

29%

Cristo Atlético 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Atlético Astorga (draw refunded)

58%

Cristo Atlético (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Astorga at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.77 · 93 matches

Cristo Atlético away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Astorga attack 1.68 + Cristo Atlético defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.31

Cristo Atlético attack 1.36 + Atlético Astorga defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Atlético Astorga scores more

42%

level

28%

Cristo Atlético scores more

30%

Atlético Astorga at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Atlético Astorga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

Amis García← Jesús Jimenéz

68'

José Misffut← Mario Presa

68'

Aritz Hernández← David Álvarez

71'

Valentín Prieto← Fran Adéva

71'

Álex Conde← F. Rodas

76'

Samu← Fran Sabaté

90'

Álex Matos← Herrador

Atlético

Cristo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: José Lago

68'▲José Misffut←▼Mario Presa

68'▲Aritz Hernández←▼David Álvarez

90'▲Álex Matos←▼Herrador

Atlético Astorga substitutes

MisffutHernándezMatos

Manager: Carlos Doyague

58'▲Amis García←▼Jesús Jimenéz

71'▲Valentín Prieto←▼Fran Adéva

71'▲Álex Conde←▼F. Rodas

76'▲Samu←▼Fran Sabaté

Cristo Atlético substitutes

GarcíaPrietoCondeSamu

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Atlético Astorga 0–0 Cristo Atlético

Atlético Astorga and Cristo Atlético drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Eragudina in Astorga.

Atlético Astorga vs Cristo Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Atlético Astorga 0–0 Cristo Atlético