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Atlético Astorga vs Ciudad Rodrigo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Atlético Astorga
Atlético Astorga
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ciudad Rodrigo
Ciudad Rodrigo
10/5/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 5Estadio La Eragudina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Atlético Astorga63%
×Draw22%
Ciudad Rodrigo15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Astorga
1.84
Ciudad Rodrigo
0.76

Atlético Astorga creates 142% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 34 away

creates per match

Atlético Astorga
1.68
Ciudad Rodrigo
0.74

allows per match

Atlético Astorga
0.77
Ciudad Rodrigo
2.00

finishing

Atlético Astorga+0.00on par
Ciudad Rodrigo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Astorga ↓

Ciudad Rodrigo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atlético Astorga or draw
85%
Atlético Astorga or Ciudad Rodrigo
78%
Draw or Ciudad Rodrigo
37%

Winning margin

Atlético Astorga wins by 2+
37%
Ciudad Rodrigo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Atlético Astorga 1+ goals
84%
Atlético Astorga 2+ goals
55%
Atlético Astorga 3+ goals
28%
Ciudad Rodrigo 1+ goals
53%
Ciudad Rodrigo 2+ goals
18%
Ciudad Rodrigo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Atlético Astorga (draw refunded)
81%
Ciudad Rodrigo (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Astorga at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.77 · 93 matches

Ciudad Rodrigo away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.00 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Astorga attack 1.68 + Ciudad Rodrigo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.84

Ciudad Rodrigo attack 0.74 + Atlético Astorga defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Atlético Astorga scores more
63%
level
22%
Ciudad Rodrigo scores more
15%

Atlético Astorga at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Atlético Astorga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Atlético Astorga 2–0 Ciudad Rodrigo

Atlético Astorga beat Ciudad Rodrigo 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Eragudina in Astorga.