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Atlético Astorga vs Bupolsa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Atlético Astorga
Atlético Astorga
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bupolsa
Bupolsa
10/12/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 10Estadio La Eragudina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Atlético Astorga55%
×Draw26%
Bupolsa19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Astorga
1.52
Bupolsa
0.79

Atlético Astorga creates 92% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 31 away

creates per match

Atlético Astorga
1.68
Bupolsa
0.81

allows per match

Atlético Astorga
0.77
Bupolsa
1.35

finishing

Atlético Astorga+0.00on par
Bupolsa+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Astorga ↓

Bupolsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atlético Astorga or draw
81%
Atlético Astorga or Bupolsa
74%
Draw or Bupolsa
45%

Winning margin

Atlético Astorga wins by 2+
28%
Bupolsa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atlético Astorga 1+ goals
78%
Atlético Astorga 2+ goals
45%
Atlético Astorga 3+ goals
20%
Bupolsa 1+ goals
55%
Bupolsa 2+ goals
19%
Bupolsa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atlético Astorga (draw refunded)
74%
Bupolsa (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Astorga at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.77 · 93 matches

Bupolsa away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Astorga attack 1.68 + Bupolsa defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.52

Bupolsa attack 0.81 + Atlético Astorga defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Atlético Astorga scores more
55%
level
26%
Bupolsa scores more
19%

Atlético Astorga at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Atlético Astorga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Atlético Astorga 2–0 Bupolsa

Atlético Astorga beat Bupolsa 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on October 12, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio La Eragudina in Astorga.