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Atlético Arteixo vs Valladares — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Atlético Arteixo
Atlético Arteixo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Valladares
Valladares
3/16/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Ponte Dos Brozos Sintético

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atlético Arteixo52%
×Draw25%
Valladares23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Arteixo
1.61
Valladares
0.98

Atlético Arteixo creates 64% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 17 away

creates per match

Atlético Arteixo
1.46
Valladares
0.82

allows per match

Atlético Arteixo
1.15
Valladares
1.76

finishing

Atlético Arteixo+0.00on par
Valladares+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Arteixo ↓

Valladares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atlético Arteixo or draw
77%
Atlético Arteixo or Valladares
75%
Draw or Valladares
48%

Winning margin

Atlético Arteixo wins by 2+
28%
Valladares wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Atlético Arteixo 1+ goals
80%
Atlético Arteixo 2+ goals
48%
Atlético Arteixo 3+ goals
22%
Valladares 1+ goals
62%
Valladares 2+ goals
26%
Valladares 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atlético Arteixo (draw refunded)
69%
Valladares (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Arteixo at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.15 · 67 matches

Valladares away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Arteixo attack 1.46 + Valladares defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.61

Valladares attack 0.82 + Atlético Arteixo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Atlético Arteixo scores more
52%
level
25%
Valladares scores more
23%

Atlético Arteixo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Atlético Arteixo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Arteixo 1 – 0 Valladares

Atlético Arteixo beat Valladares 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Ponte Dos Brozos Sintético in La Coruña.