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Atlético Arteixo vs Rápido Bouzas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Atlético Arteixo
Atlético Arteixo
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Rápido Bouzas
Rápido Bouzas
12/17/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Estadio Municipal Arteixo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Atlético Arteixo41%
×Draw27%
Rápido Bouzas32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Arteixo
1.34
Rápido Bouzas
1.14

Atlético Arteixo creates 18% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 75 away

creates per match

Atlético Arteixo
1.46
Rápido Bouzas
1.12

allows per match

Atlético Arteixo
1.15
Rápido Bouzas
1.23

finishing

Atlético Arteixo+0.00on par
Rápido Bouzas+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Arteixo ↓

Rápido Bouzas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Arteixo or draw
68%
Atlético Arteixo or Rápido Bouzas
73%
Draw or Rápido Bouzas
59%

Winning margin

Atlético Arteixo wins by 2+
19%
Rápido Bouzas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Atlético Arteixo 1+ goals
74%
Atlético Arteixo 2+ goals
39%
Atlético Arteixo 3+ goals
15%
Rápido Bouzas 1+ goals
68%
Rápido Bouzas 2+ goals
32%
Rápido Bouzas 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Atlético Arteixo (draw refunded)
57%
Rápido Bouzas (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Arteixo at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.15 · 67 matches

Rápido Bouzas away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.23 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Arteixo attack 1.46 + Rápido Bouzas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.34

Rápido Bouzas attack 1.12 + Atlético Arteixo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atlético Arteixo scores more
41%
level
27%
Rápido Bouzas scores more
32%

Atlético Arteixo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atlético Arteixo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Arteixo vs Rápido Bouzas

Atlético Arteixo and Rápido Bouzas drew 3-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 17, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Arteixo in Arteixo.