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Atlético Arteixo vs Pontevedra II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Atlético Arteixo
Atlético Arteixo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Pontevedra II
Pontevedra II
9/10/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Estadio Municipal Arteixo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atlético Arteixo61%
×Draw22%
Pontevedra II18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Arteixo
1.94
Pontevedra II
0.93

Atlético Arteixo creates 109% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 17 away

creates per match

Atlético Arteixo
1.46
Pontevedra II
0.71

allows per match

Atlético Arteixo
1.15
Pontevedra II
2.41

finishing

Atlético Arteixo+0.00on par
Pontevedra II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Arteixo ↓

Pontevedra II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Atlético Arteixo or draw
82%
Atlético Arteixo or Pontevedra II
78%
Draw or Pontevedra II
39%

Winning margin

Atlético Arteixo wins by 2+
36%
Pontevedra II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atlético Arteixo 1+ goals
86%
Atlético Arteixo 2+ goals
58%
Atlético Arteixo 3+ goals
30%
Pontevedra II 1+ goals
61%
Pontevedra II 2+ goals
24%
Pontevedra II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atlético Arteixo (draw refunded)
78%
Pontevedra II (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Arteixo at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.15 · 67 matches

Pontevedra II away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Arteixo attack 1.46 + Pontevedra II defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.94

Pontevedra II attack 0.71 + Atlético Arteixo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Atlético Arteixo scores more
61%
level
22%
Pontevedra II scores more
18%

Atlético Arteixo at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Atlético Arteixo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Arteixo 1 – 1 Pontevedra II

Atlético Arteixo and Pontevedra II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Arteixo in Arteixo.