Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Atlético Arteixo vs Noia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Atlético Arteixo
Atlético Arteixo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Noia
Noia
4/17/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Ponte Dos Brozos Sintético

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Atlético Arteixo48%
×Draw26%
Noia26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Arteixo
1.48
Noia
1.03

Atlético Arteixo creates 44% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 50 away

creates per match

Atlético Arteixo
1.46
Noia
0.92

allows per match

Atlético Arteixo
1.15
Noia
1.50

finishing

Atlético Arteixo+0.00on par
Noia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Arteixo ↓

Noia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Arteixo or draw
74%
Atlético Arteixo or Noia
74%
Draw or Noia
52%

Winning margin

Atlético Arteixo wins by 2+
24%
Noia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atlético Arteixo 1+ goals
77%
Atlético Arteixo 2+ goals
43%
Atlético Arteixo 3+ goals
19%
Noia 1+ goals
64%
Noia 2+ goals
28%
Noia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Atlético Arteixo (draw refunded)
64%
Noia (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Arteixo at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.15 · 67 matches

Noia away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.50 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Arteixo attack 1.46 + Noia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Noia attack 0.92 + Atlético Arteixo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Atlético Arteixo scores more
48%
level
26%
Noia scores more
26%

Atlético Arteixo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atlético Arteixo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Atlético Arteixo 1–1 Noia

Atlético Arteixo and Noia drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 17, 2025.

The match was played at Ponte Dos Brozos Sintético in La Coruña.