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Atlético Arteixo vs Coruña — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Atlético Arteixo
Atlético Arteixo
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Coruña
Coruña
3/19/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Ponte Dos Brozos Sintético

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atlético Arteixo39%
×Draw27%
Coruña34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Arteixo
1.32
Coruña
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 17 away

creates per match

Atlético Arteixo
1.46
Coruña
1.29

allows per match

Atlético Arteixo
1.15
Coruña
1.18

finishing

Atlético Arteixo+0.00on par
Coruña+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Arteixo ↓

Coruña →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Arteixo or draw
66%
Atlético Arteixo or Coruña
73%
Draw or Coruña
61%

Winning margin

Atlético Arteixo wins by 2+
18%
Coruña wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Atlético Arteixo 1+ goals
73%
Atlético Arteixo 2+ goals
38%
Atlético Arteixo 3+ goals
15%
Coruña 1+ goals
70%
Coruña 2+ goals
34%
Coruña 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Atlético Arteixo (draw refunded)
53%
Coruña (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Arteixo at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.15 · 67 matches

Coruña away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Arteixo attack 1.46 + Coruña defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.32

Coruña attack 1.29 + Atlético Arteixo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atlético Arteixo scores more
39%
level
27%
Coruña scores more
34%

Atlético Arteixo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atlético Arteixo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Atlético Arteixo 3–2 Coruña

Atlético Arteixo beat Coruña 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 19, 2026.

The match was played at Ponte Dos Brozos Sintético in A Coruña (La Coruña).