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Atlético Arteixo vs Arosa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Atlético Arteixo
Atlético Arteixo
FT
3 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Arosa
Arosa
10/26/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Ponte Dos Brozos Sintético

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Atlético Arteixo36%
×Draw26%
Arosa37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Arteixo
1.28
Arosa
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 94 away

creates per match

Atlético Arteixo
1.46
Arosa
1.48

allows per match

Atlético Arteixo
1.15
Arosa
1.10

finishing

Atlético Arteixo+0.00on par
Arosa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Arteixo ↓

Arosa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atlético Arteixo or draw
63%
Atlético Arteixo or Arosa
74%
Draw or Arosa
64%

Winning margin

Atlético Arteixo wins by 2+
16%
Arosa wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Atlético Arteixo 1+ goals
72%
Atlético Arteixo 2+ goals
37%
Atlético Arteixo 3+ goals
14%
Arosa 1+ goals
73%
Arosa 2+ goals
38%
Arosa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Atlético Arteixo (draw refunded)
49%
Arosa (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Arteixo at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.15 · 67 matches

Arosa away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.10 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Arteixo attack 1.46 + Arosa defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.28

Arosa attack 1.48 + Atlético Arteixo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Atlético Arteixo scores more
36%
level
26%
Arosa scores more
37%

Arosa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Arosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Arteixo vs Arosa

Arosa beat Atlético Arteixo 5-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Ponte Dos Brozos Sintético in La Coruña.