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Atlético Artajonés vs San Juan — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Atlético Artajonés
Atlético Artajonés
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
San Juan
San Juan
3/30/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 28Estadio La Alameda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Atlético Artajonés33%
×Draw27%
San Juan41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Artajonés
1.19
San Juan
1.36

San Juan creates 14% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 62 away

creates per match

Atlético Artajonés
1.44
San Juan
1.29

allows per match

Atlético Artajonés
1.44
San Juan
0.94

finishing

Atlético Artajonés+0.00on par
San Juan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Artajonés ↓

San Juan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Artajonés or draw
59%
Atlético Artajonés or San Juan
73%
Draw or San Juan
67%

Winning margin

Atlético Artajonés wins by 2+
14%
San Juan wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Atlético Artajonés 1+ goals
70%
Atlético Artajonés 2+ goals
33%
Atlético Artajonés 3+ goals
12%
San Juan 1+ goals
74%
San Juan 2+ goals
39%
San Juan 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Atlético Artajonés (draw refunded)
45%
San Juan (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Artajonés at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

San Juan away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.94 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Artajonés attack 1.44 + San Juan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.19

San Juan attack 1.29 + Atlético Artajonés defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atlético Artajonés scores more
33%
level
27%
San Juan scores more
41%

San Juan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "San Juan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Artajonés 1 – 1 San Juan

Atlético Artajonés and San Juan drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio La Alameda in Artajona.