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Atlético Artajonés vs Gares — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Atlético Artajonés
Atlético Artajonés
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Gares
Gares
5/10/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 34Estadio La Alameda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Atlético Artajonés60%
×Draw22%
Gares18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Artajonés
1.94
Gares
0.97

Atlético Artajonés creates 100% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 32 away

creates per match

Atlético Artajonés
1.44
Gares
0.50

allows per match

Atlético Artajonés
1.44
Gares
2.44

finishing

Atlético Artajonés+0.00on par
Gares+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Artajonés ↓

Gares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Atlético Artajonés or draw
82%
Atlético Artajonés or Gares
78%
Draw or Gares
40%

Winning margin

Atlético Artajonés wins by 2+
36%
Gares wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atlético Artajonés 1+ goals
86%
Atlético Artajonés 2+ goals
58%
Atlético Artajonés 3+ goals
30%
Gares 1+ goals
62%
Gares 2+ goals
25%
Gares 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atlético Artajonés (draw refunded)
76%
Gares (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Artajonés at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

Gares away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.44 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Artajonés attack 1.44 + Gares defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.94

Gares attack 0.50 + Atlético Artajonés defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Atlético Artajonés scores more
60%
level
22%
Gares scores more
18%

Atlético Artajonés at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Atlético Artajonés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Artajonés 1 – 1 Gares

Atlético Artajonés and Gares drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio La Alameda in Artajona.