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Atlético Artajonés vs Cortes — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Atlético Artajonés
Atlético Artajonés
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cortes
Cortes
12/5/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 14Estadio La Alameda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Atlético Artajonés39%
×Draw27%
Cortes34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Artajonés
1.31
Cortes
1.19

Atlético Artajonés creates 10% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 107 away

creates per match

Atlético Artajonés
1.44
Cortes
0.95

allows per match

Atlético Artajonés
1.44
Cortes
1.18

finishing

Atlético Artajonés+0.00on par
Cortes+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Artajonés ↓

Cortes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Artajonés or draw
66%
Atlético Artajonés or Cortes
73%
Draw or Cortes
61%

Winning margin

Atlético Artajonés wins by 2+
18%
Cortes wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Atlético Artajonés 1+ goals
73%
Atlético Artajonés 2+ goals
38%
Atlético Artajonés 3+ goals
14%
Cortes 1+ goals
70%
Cortes 2+ goals
33%
Cortes 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Atlético Artajonés (draw refunded)
54%
Cortes (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Artajonés at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

Cortes away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.18 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Artajonés attack 1.44 + Cortes defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.31

Cortes attack 0.95 + Atlético Artajonés defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atlético Artajonés scores more
39%
level
27%
Cortes scores more
34%

Atlético Artajonés at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atlético Artajonés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Atlético Artajonés 2–1 Cortes

Atlético Artajonés beat Cortes 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on December 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Alameda in Artajona.