Atlético Arnoia 2–1 Sofán: Result & Stats

Atlético Arnoia

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sofán

12/8/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Campo de fútbol da Queixeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Atlético Arnoia51%

×Draw23%

Sofán26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético ArnoiaExpected goals in this matchSofán

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.19

Atlético Arnoia

1.78

Sofán

1.19

Atlético Arnoia creates 50% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

1.13

creates per match

0.88

1.50

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Atlético Arnoia

1.13

Sofán

0.88

allows per match

Atlético Arnoia

1.50

Sofán

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Arnoia+0.00on par

Sofán+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Arnoia ↓

Sofán →

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Atlético Arnoia or draw

74%

Atlético Arnoia or Sofán

77%

Draw or Sofán

49%

Winning margin

Atlético Arnoia wins by 2+

28%

Sofán wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Atlético Arnoia 1+ goals

83%

Atlético Arnoia 2+ goals

53%

Atlético Arnoia 3+ goals

26%

Sofán 1+ goals

70%

Sofán 2+ goals

33%

Sofán 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Atlético Arnoia (draw refunded)

67%

Sofán (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Arnoia at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

Sofán away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Arnoia attack 1.13 + Sofán defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.78

Sofán attack 0.88 + Atlético Arnoia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Atlético Arnoia scores more

51%

level

23%

Sofán scores more

26%

Atlético Arnoia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Atlético Arnoia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff