Atlético Arnoia 1–2 Rápido Bouzas: Result & Stats

Atlético Arnoia

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Rápido Bouzas

10/17/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Campo de fútbol da Queixeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Atlético Arnoia33%

×Draw27%

Rápido Bouzas40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético ArnoiaExpected goals in this matchRápido Bouzas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.31

Atlético Arnoia

1.18

Rápido Bouzas

1.31

Rápido Bouzas creates 11% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 75 away

1.13

creates per match

1.12

1.50

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Atlético Arnoia

1.13

Rápido Bouzas

1.12

allows per match

Atlético Arnoia

1.50

Rápido Bouzas

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Arnoia+0.00on par

Rápido Bouzas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Arnoia ↓

Rápido Bouzas →

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Arnoia or draw

60%

Atlético Arnoia or Rápido Bouzas

73%

Draw or Rápido Bouzas

67%

Winning margin

Atlético Arnoia wins by 2+

14%

Rápido Bouzas wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Atlético Arnoia 1+ goals

69%

Atlético Arnoia 2+ goals

33%

Atlético Arnoia 3+ goals

12%

Rápido Bouzas 1+ goals

73%

Rápido Bouzas 2+ goals

38%

Rápido Bouzas 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Atlético Arnoia (draw refunded)

46%

Rápido Bouzas (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Arnoia at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

Rápido Bouzas away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.23 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Arnoia attack 1.13 + Rápido Bouzas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Rápido Bouzas attack 1.12 + Atlético Arnoia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atlético Arnoia scores more

33%

level

27%

Rápido Bouzas scores more

40%

Rápido Bouzas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rápido Bouzas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Arnoia vs Rápido Bouzas

Rápido Bouzas beat Atlético Arnoia 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol da Queixeira in A Arnoia.

Atlético Arnoia vs Rápido Bouzas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Atlético Arnoia vs Rápido Bouzas