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Atlético Arnoia vs Ourense CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Atlético Arnoia
Atlético Arnoia
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Ourense CF
Ourense CF
12/22/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Campo de fútbol da Queixeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Atlético Arnoia27%
×Draw26%
Ourense CF47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Arnoia
1.07
Ourense CF
1.48

Ourense CF creates 38% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 47 away

creates per match

Atlético Arnoia
1.13
Ourense CF
1.47

allows per match

Atlético Arnoia
1.50
Ourense CF
1.02

finishing

Atlético Arnoia+0.00on par
Ourense CF+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Arnoia ↓

Ourense CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Arnoia or draw
53%
Atlético Arnoia or Ourense CF
74%
Draw or Ourense CF
73%

Winning margin

Atlético Arnoia wins by 2+
10%
Ourense CF wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Atlético Arnoia 1+ goals
66%
Atlético Arnoia 2+ goals
29%
Atlético Arnoia 3+ goals
9%
Ourense CF 1+ goals
77%
Ourense CF 2+ goals
43%
Ourense CF 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Atlético Arnoia (draw refunded)
37%
Ourense CF (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Arnoia at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

Ourense CF away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.02 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Arnoia attack 1.13 + Ourense CF defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.07

Ourense CF attack 1.47 + Atlético Arnoia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Atlético Arnoia scores more
27%
level
26%
Ourense CF scores more
47%

Ourense CF at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ourense CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Arnoia vs Ourense CF

Ourense CF beat Atlético Arnoia 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 22, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol da Queixeira in A Arnoia.