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Atlético Arnoia vs Juvenil Ponteareas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Atlético Arnoia
Atlético Arnoia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Juvenil Ponteareas
Juvenil Ponteareas
4/17/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 33Campo de fútbol da Queixeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Atlético Arnoia45%
×Draw27%
Juvenil Ponteareas28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Arnoia
1.41
Juvenil Ponteareas
1.06

Atlético Arnoia creates 33% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Atlético Arnoia
1.13
Juvenil Ponteareas
0.63

allows per match

Atlético Arnoia
1.50
Juvenil Ponteareas
1.69

finishing

Atlético Arnoia+0.00on par
Juvenil Ponteareas+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Arnoia ↓

Juvenil Ponteareas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Arnoia or draw
72%
Atlético Arnoia or Juvenil Ponteareas
73%
Draw or Juvenil Ponteareas
55%

Winning margin

Atlético Arnoia wins by 2+
22%
Juvenil Ponteareas wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Atlético Arnoia 1+ goals
76%
Atlético Arnoia 2+ goals
41%
Atlético Arnoia 3+ goals
17%
Juvenil Ponteareas 1+ goals
65%
Juvenil Ponteareas 2+ goals
29%
Juvenil Ponteareas 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Atlético Arnoia (draw refunded)
61%
Juvenil Ponteareas (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Arnoia at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

Juvenil Ponteareas away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Arnoia attack 1.13 + Juvenil Ponteareas defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.41

Juvenil Ponteareas attack 0.63 + Atlético Arnoia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atlético Arnoia scores more
45%
level
27%
Juvenil Ponteareas scores more
28%

Atlético Arnoia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atlético Arnoia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Arnoia 1 – 1 Juvenil Ponteareas

Atlético Arnoia and Juvenil Ponteareas drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 17, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol da Queixeira in A Arnoia.