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Atlético Arnoia vs Deportivo La Coruña II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Atlético Arnoia
Atlético Arnoia
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Deportivo La Coruña II
Deportivo La Coruña II
4/9/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 31Campo de fútbol da Queixeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Atlético Arnoia31%
×Draw27%
Deportivo La Coruña II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Arnoia
1.09
Deportivo La Coruña II
1.33

Deportivo La Coruña II creates 22% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 58 away

creates per match

Atlético Arnoia
1.13
Deportivo La Coruña II
1.16

allows per match

Atlético Arnoia
1.50
Deportivo La Coruña II
1.05

finishing

Atlético Arnoia+0.00on par
Deportivo La Coruña II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Arnoia ↓

Deportivo La Coruña II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Arnoia or draw
58%
Atlético Arnoia or Deportivo La Coruña II
73%
Draw or Deportivo La Coruña II
69%

Winning margin

Atlético Arnoia wins by 2+
12%
Deportivo La Coruña II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Atlético Arnoia 1+ goals
66%
Atlético Arnoia 2+ goals
30%
Atlético Arnoia 3+ goals
10%
Deportivo La Coruña II 1+ goals
74%
Deportivo La Coruña II 2+ goals
38%
Deportivo La Coruña II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Atlético Arnoia (draw refunded)
42%
Deportivo La Coruña II (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Arnoia at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

Deportivo La Coruña II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.05 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Arnoia attack 1.13 + Deportivo La Coruña II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.09

Deportivo La Coruña II attack 1.16 + Atlético Arnoia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Atlético Arnoia scores more
31%
level
27%
Deportivo La Coruña II scores more
42%

Deportivo La Coruña II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruña II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Arnoia vs Deportivo La Coruña II

Deportivo La Coruña II beat Atlético Arnoia 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol da Queixeira in A Arnoia.