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Atlético Arnoia vs Barco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Atlético Arnoia
Atlético Arnoia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Barco
Barco
12/18/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Campo de fútbol da Queixeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Atlético Arnoia35%
×Draw26%
Barco39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Arnoia
1.27
Barco
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 78 away

creates per match

Atlético Arnoia
1.13
Barco
1.21

allows per match

Atlético Arnoia
1.50
Barco
1.42

finishing

Atlético Arnoia+0.00on par
Barco+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Arnoia ↓

Barco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atlético Arnoia or draw
61%
Atlético Arnoia or Barco
74%
Draw or Barco
65%

Winning margin

Atlético Arnoia wins by 2+
15%
Barco wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Atlético Arnoia 1+ goals
72%
Atlético Arnoia 2+ goals
36%
Atlético Arnoia 3+ goals
14%
Barco 1+ goals
74%
Barco 2+ goals
39%
Barco 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Atlético Arnoia (draw refunded)
47%
Barco (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Arnoia at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

Barco away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.42 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Arnoia attack 1.13 + Barco defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.27

Barco attack 1.21 + Atlético Arnoia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atlético Arnoia scores more
35%
level
26%
Barco scores more
39%

Barco at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Barco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Atlético Arnoia 1–1 Barco

Atlético Arnoia and Barco drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 18, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol da Queixeira in A Arnoia.