Atlético Albericia 0–1 Bezana: Result & Stats

Atlético Albericia

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bezana

12/7/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 13Estadio Juan Hormaechea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Atlético Albericia43%

×Draw26%

Bezana31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético AlbericiaExpected goals in this matchBezana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.20

Atlético Albericia

1.47

Bezana

1.20

Atlético Albericia creates 23% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 81 away

1.60

creates per match

1.23

1.17

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Atlético Albericia

1.60

Bezana

1.23

allows per match

Atlético Albericia

1.17

Bezana

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Albericia+0.00on par

Bezana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Albericia ↓

Bezana →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Atlético Albericia or draw

69%

Atlético Albericia or Bezana

74%

Draw or Bezana

57%

Winning margin

Atlético Albericia wins by 2+

21%

Bezana wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Atlético Albericia 1+ goals

77%

Atlético Albericia 2+ goals

43%

Atlético Albericia 3+ goals

18%

Bezana 1+ goals

70%

Bezana 2+ goals

34%

Bezana 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Atlético Albericia (draw refunded)

58%

Bezana (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Albericia at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.17 · 108 matches

Bezana away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.33 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Albericia attack 1.60 + Bezana defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.47

Bezana attack 1.23 + Atlético Albericia defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Atlético Albericia scores more

43%

level

26%

Bezana scores more

31%

Atlético Albericia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Atlético Albericia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff