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Atlético Albericia vs Barquereño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Atlético Albericia
Atlético Albericia
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Barquereño
Barquereño
5/10/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 34Estadio Juan Hormaechea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Atlético Albericia53%
×Draw24%
Barquereño24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Albericia
1.75
Barquereño
1.09

Atlético Albericia creates 61% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 62 away

creates per match

Atlético Albericia
1.60
Barquereño
1.02

allows per match

Atlético Albericia
1.17
Barquereño
1.89

finishing

Atlético Albericia+0.00on par
Barquereño+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Albericia ↓

Barquereño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Atlético Albericia or draw
76%
Atlético Albericia or Barquereño
76%
Draw or Barquereño
47%

Winning margin

Atlético Albericia wins by 2+
29%
Barquereño wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atlético Albericia 1+ goals
83%
Atlético Albericia 2+ goals
52%
Atlético Albericia 3+ goals
25%
Barquereño 1+ goals
66%
Barquereño 2+ goals
30%
Barquereño 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atlético Albericia (draw refunded)
69%
Barquereño (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Albericia at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.17 · 108 matches

Barquereño away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.89 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Albericia attack 1.60 + Barquereño defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.75

Barquereño attack 1.02 + Atlético Albericia defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Atlético Albericia scores more
53%
level
24%
Barquereño scores more
24%

Atlético Albericia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Atlético Albericia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Albericia vs Barquereño

Atlético Albericia beat Barquereño 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Hormaechea in Santander.