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Atlético Alagoinhas vs Tupynambás — Serie D 2018

Atlético Alagoinhas
Atlético Alagoinhas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tupynambás
Tupynambás
10/17/2020Serie DSerie D · Round 7Estádio Antônio de Figueiredo Carneiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Atlético Alagoinhas33%
×Draw26%
Tupynambás41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Alagoinhas
1.28
Tupynambás
1.46

Tupynambás creates 14% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 8 away

creates per match

Atlético Alagoinhas
1.18
Tupynambás
1.50

allows per match

Atlético Alagoinhas
1.42
Tupynambás
1.38

finishing

Atlético Alagoinhas+0.00on par
Tupynambás+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Alagoinhas ↓

Tupynambás →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Atlético Alagoinhas or draw
59%
Atlético Alagoinhas or Tupynambás
74%
Draw or Tupynambás
67%

Winning margin

Atlético Alagoinhas wins by 2+
14%
Tupynambás wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Atlético Alagoinhas 1+ goals
72%
Atlético Alagoinhas 2+ goals
37%
Atlético Alagoinhas 3+ goals
14%
Tupynambás 1+ goals
77%
Tupynambás 2+ goals
43%
Tupynambás 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Atlético Alagoinhas (draw refunded)
44%
Tupynambás (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Alagoinhas at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.42 · 38 matches

Tupynambás away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Alagoinhas attack 1.18 + Tupynambás defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.28

Tupynambás attack 1.50 + Atlético Alagoinhas defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atlético Alagoinhas scores more
33%
level
26%
Tupynambás scores more
41%

Tupynambás at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tupynambás will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Alagoinhas vs Tupynambás

Atlético Alagoinhas and Tupynambás drew 1-1 in Serie D on October 17, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Antônio de Figueiredo Carneiro in Alagoinhas, Bahia.