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Atlético Alagoinhas vs Independente PA — Serie D 2026

Atlético Alagoinhas
Atlético Alagoinhas
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Independente PA
Independente PA
10/26/2020Serie DSerie D · Round 9Arena Acreana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Atlético Alagoinhas50%
×Draw23%
Independente PA26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Alagoinhas
1.77
Independente PA
1.21

Atlético Alagoinhas creates 46% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 11 away

creates per match

Atlético Alagoinhas
1.18
Independente PA
1.00

allows per match

Atlético Alagoinhas
1.42
Independente PA
2.36

finishing

Atlético Alagoinhas+0.00on par
Independente PA+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Alagoinhas ↓

Independente PA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Atlético Alagoinhas or draw
74%
Atlético Alagoinhas or Independente PA
77%
Draw or Independente PA
50%

Winning margin

Atlético Alagoinhas wins by 2+
28%
Independente PA wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Atlético Alagoinhas 1+ goals
83%
Atlético Alagoinhas 2+ goals
53%
Atlético Alagoinhas 3+ goals
26%
Independente PA 1+ goals
70%
Independente PA 2+ goals
34%
Independente PA 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Atlético Alagoinhas (draw refunded)
66%
Independente PA (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Alagoinhas at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.42 · 38 matches

Independente PA away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Alagoinhas attack 1.18 + Independente PA defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.77

Independente PA attack 1.00 + Atlético Alagoinhas defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Atlético Alagoinhas scores more
50%
level
23%
Independente PA scores more
26%

Atlético Alagoinhas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Atlético Alagoinhas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Atlético Alagoinhas 3–3 Independente PA

Atlético Alagoinhas and Independente PA drew 3-3 in Serie D on October 26, 2020.

The match was played at Arena Acreana in Rio Branco, Acre.