Atlético Alagoinhas 1–2 Falcon: Result & Stats

Atlético Alagoinhas

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Falcon

5/13/2023

Serie D · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Antônio de Figueiredo Carneiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Atlético Alagoinhas37%

×Draw26%

Falcon37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético AlagoinhasExpected goals in this matchFalcon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.33

Atlético Alagoinhas

1.34

Falcon

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 8 away

1.18

creates per match

1.25

1.42

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Atlético Alagoinhas

1.18

Falcon

1.25

allows per match

Atlético Alagoinhas

1.42

Falcon

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Alagoinhas+0.00on par

Falcon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Alagoinhas ↓

Falcon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Atlético Alagoinhas or draw

63%

Atlético Alagoinhas or Falcon

74%

Draw or Falcon

63%

Winning margin

Atlético Alagoinhas wins by 2+

17%

Falcon wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Atlético Alagoinhas 1+ goals

74%

Atlético Alagoinhas 2+ goals

39%

Atlético Alagoinhas 3+ goals

15%

Falcon 1+ goals

74%

Falcon 2+ goals

38%

Falcon 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Atlético Alagoinhas (draw refunded)

50%

Falcon (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Alagoinhas at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.42 · 38 matches

Falcon away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Alagoinhas attack 1.18 + Falcon defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.34

Falcon attack 1.25 + Atlético Alagoinhas defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Atlético Alagoinhas scores more

37%

level

26%

Falcon scores more

37%

Atlético Alagoinhas at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atlético Alagoinhas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff