Atlético Acreano 2–1 Salgueiro: Result & Stats

Atlético Acreano

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Salgueiro

Alfredo 87'

Eduardo 18'

Vitão 54'

7/8/2018

Serie C · Round 13Estádio Antônio Aquino Lopes (Rio Branco, Acre)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Atlético Acreano53%

×Draw28%

Salgueiro19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético AcreanoExpected goals in this matchSalgueiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.72

Atlético Acreano

1.40

Salgueiro

0.72

Atlético Acreano creates 94% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 9 away

1.47

creates per match

0.33

1.11

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Atlético Acreano

1.47

Salgueiro

0.33

allows per match

Atlético Acreano

1.11

Salgueiro

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Acreano+0.00on par

Salgueiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Acreano ↓

Salgueiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Atlético Acreano or draw

81%

Atlético Acreano or Salgueiro

72%

Draw or Salgueiro

47%

Winning margin

Atlético Acreano wins by 2+

26%

Salgueiro wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Atlético Acreano 1+ goals

75%

Atlético Acreano 2+ goals

41%

Atlético Acreano 3+ goals

17%

Salgueiro 1+ goals

51%

Salgueiro 2+ goals

16%

Salgueiro 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Atlético Acreano (draw refunded)

73%

Salgueiro (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Acreano at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Salgueiro away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Acreano attack 1.47 + Salgueiro defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.40

Salgueiro attack 0.33 + Atlético Acreano defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Atlético Acreano scores more

53%

level

28%

Salgueiro scores more

19%

Atlético Acreano at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Atlético Acreano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Eduardo

54'

Vitão

65'

Marcos Tamandaré← Marcos Vinicius

66'

Marcos Willard← Jeferson

72'

Erinaldo← Erikys

77'

Rafael Tanque← Tauã

86'

André Victor← Bruno Menezes

87'

Alfredo

90'

Reginaldo← Eduardo

Atlético

Salgueiro

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Eduardo

Neto

Manager: Alvaro

66'▲Marcos Willard←▼Jeferson

77'▲Rafael Tanque←▼Tauã

90'▲Reginaldo←▼Eduardo

Atlético Acreano substitutes

WillardTanqueReginaldoCarlosEdivandroGeovaniLeandroMoraesHenriqueFerroTragodaraWilson

Manager: Sérgio China

65'▲Marcos Tamandaré←▼Marcos Vinicius

72'▲Erinaldo←▼Erikys

86'▲André Victor←▼Bruno Menezes

Salgueiro substitutes

TamandaréErinaldoVictorLucianoAlexonTanakaBelmonteEscuroAnaniasPauloEduardoAnicete

Match Recap: Atlético Acreano vs Salgueiro

Atlético Acreano beat Salgueiro 2-1 in Serie C on July 8, 2018.

Goals: Eduardo (18'), Vitão (54'), Alfredo (87').

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Aquino Lopes (Rio Branco, Acre).

Atlético Acreano vs Salgueiro — Serie C 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Atlético Acreano vs Salgueiro