Atlético Acreano 2–2 Ji-Paraná: Result & Stats

Atlético Acreano

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ji-Paraná

Anderson 79'

Vinicius 54'

Renan 68', 3'

11/28/2020

Serie D · Round 14Arena Acreana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Atlético Acreano41%

×Draw23%

Ji-Paraná36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético AcreanoExpected goals in this matchJi-Paraná

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.58

Atlético Acreano

1.71

Ji-Paraná

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

1.55

creates per match

1.25

1.91

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Atlético Acreano

1.55

Ji-Paraná

1.25

allows per match

Atlético Acreano

1.91

Ji-Paraná

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Acreano+0.00on par

Ji-Paraná+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Acreano ↓

Ji-Paraná →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Atlético Acreano or draw

64%

Atlético Acreano or Ji-Paraná

77%

Draw or Ji-Paraná

59%

Winning margin

Atlético Acreano wins by 2+

21%

Ji-Paraná wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Atlético Acreano 1+ goals

82%

Atlético Acreano 2+ goals

51%

Atlético Acreano 3+ goals

24%

Ji-Paraná 1+ goals

79%

Ji-Paraná 2+ goals

47%

Ji-Paraná 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Atlético Acreano (draw refunded)

54%

Ji-Paraná (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Acreano at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

Ji-Paraná away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Acreano attack 1.55 + Ji-Paraná defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.71

Ji-Paraná attack 1.25 + Atlético Acreano defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atlético Acreano scores more

41%

level

23%

Ji-Paraná scores more

36%

Atlético Acreano at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atlético Acreano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

Renan

46'

Bruno← Antonio

46'

Psica← Tragodara

54'

Vinicius

55'

Franklin← Everton

68'

Renan

78'

John← Brenner

79'

Anderson

80'

Jose Santana← Cristopher

Atlético

Ji-Paraná

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Manager: Josy

46'▲Bruno←▼Antonio

46'▲Psica←▼Tragodara

78'▲John←▼Brenner

Atlético Acreano substitutes

BrunoPsicaJohnMoraesSebastião

Manager: Bruno

55'▲Franklin←▼Everton

80'▲Jose Santana←▼Cristopher

Ji-Paraná substitutes

FranklinSantanaGabriel