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Atletic Olimpia Gherla W vs Hermannstadt W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W
Atletic Olimpia Gherla W
FT
5 – 1
Hermannstadt W
Hermannstadt W
9/21/2024Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 5Stadionul Olimpia Gherla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W77%
×Draw12%
Hermannstadt W11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W
3.83
Hermannstadt W
1.47

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W creates 161% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W
1.81
Hermannstadt W
0.62

allows per match

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W
2.31
Hermannstadt W
5.85

finishing

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W+0.00on par
Hermannstadt W+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W ↓

Hermannstadt W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W or draw
89%
Atletic Olimpia Gherla W or Hermannstadt W
88%
Draw or Hermannstadt W
23%

Winning margin

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W wins by 2+
60%
Hermannstadt W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W 1+ goals
98%
Atletic Olimpia Gherla W 2+ goals
88%
Atletic Olimpia Gherla W 3+ goals
71%
Hermannstadt W 1+ goals
77%
Hermannstadt W 2+ goals
43%
Hermannstadt W 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W (draw refunded)
88%
Hermannstadt W (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W at home — creates 1.81, concedes 2.31 · 26 matches

Hermannstadt W away — creates 0.62, concedes 5.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W attack 1.81 + Hermannstadt W defence 5.85 → ÷2 → 3.83

Hermannstadt W attack 0.62 + Atletic Olimpia Gherla W defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W scores more
77%
level
12%
Hermannstadt W scores more
11%

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Atletic Olimpia Gherla W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1 Feminin: Atletic Olimpia Gherla W 5–1 Hermannstadt W

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W beat Hermannstadt W 5-1 in Liga 1 Feminin on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Olimpia Gherla in Gherla.