Atlètic Amèrica 1–1 Penya Encarnada: Result & Stats

Atlètic Amèrica

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Penya Encarnada

C. González 18'

Coke Pastor 4'

9/24/2023

1a Divisió · Round 2Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Atlètic Amèrica30%

×Draw21%

Penya Encarnada49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlètic AmèricaExpected goals in this matchPenya Encarnada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

2.06

Atlètic Amèrica

1.59

Penya Encarnada

2.06

Penya Encarnada creates 30% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 62 away

1.00

creates per match

0.98

3.15

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Atlètic Amèrica

1.00

Penya Encarnada

0.98

allows per match

Atlètic Amèrica

3.15

Penya Encarnada

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlètic Amèrica+0.00on par

Penya Encarnada+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlètic Amèrica ↓

Penya Encarnada →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Atlètic Amèrica or draw

51%

Atlètic Amèrica or Penya Encarnada

79%

Draw or Penya Encarnada

70%

Winning margin

Atlètic Amèrica wins by 2+

14%

Penya Encarnada wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Atlètic Amèrica 1+ goals

80%

Atlètic Amèrica 2+ goals

47%

Atlètic Amèrica 3+ goals

21%

Penya Encarnada 1+ goals

87%

Penya Encarnada 2+ goals

61%

Penya Encarnada 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Atlètic Amèrica (draw refunded)

38%

Penya Encarnada (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlètic Amèrica at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.15 · 13 matches

Penya Encarnada away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.19 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlètic Amèrica attack 1.00 + Penya Encarnada defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.59

Penya Encarnada attack 0.98 + Atlètic Amèrica defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atlètic Amèrica scores more

30%

level

21%

Penya Encarnada scores more

49%

Penya Encarnada at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Penya Encarnada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

Coke Pastor

18'

C. González

49'

Álvaro López← Matías Bellino

55'

Isaac Caracuel← Jhon López

59'

Èric Balastegui← Paulino Monteros

72'

Xavi Puerto← Coke Pastor

78'

João Tomaz← M. Vaamonde

81'

Junior← David Ruano

Atlètic

Penya

1

Basterrec

4

Varona

2

▼

Ruano

5

▼

3

10

17

22

7

20

23

⚽

▼

1

10

6

32

11

4

▼

López

33

▼

Monteros

19

Gómez

8

Poveda

9

⚽

González

29

▼

Bellino

Manager: J. Guerrero

49'▲Álvaro López←▼Matías Bellino

55'▲Isaac Caracuel←▼Jhon López

59'▲Èric Balastegui←▼Paulino Monteros

Atlètic Amèrica substitutes

47López18Caracuel7Balastegui2Cerqueira3Osuna5Mayo27Chori

Manager: Alejandro Esteve

72'▲Xavi Puerto←▼Coke Pastor

78'▲João Tomaz←▼M. Vaamonde

81'▲Junior←▼David Ruano

Penya Encarnada substitutes

8Puerto24Tomaz6Junior25Badibanga

Match Recap: Atlètic Amèrica vs Penya Encarnada

Atlètic Amèrica and Penya Encarnada drew 1-1 in 1a Divisió on September 24, 2023.

Goals: Coke Pastor (4'), C. González (18').

The match was played at Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1 in Santa Coloma.

Atlètic Amèrica vs Penya Encarnada — 1a Divisió 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Atlètic Amèrica vs Penya Encarnada