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Atlas vs Necaxa — Liga MX 2026

Atlas
Atlas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Necaxa
Necaxa
J. Quiñones 72'
J. Furch 43'
R. Aguirre 49'
4/8/2022Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 13Estadio Jalisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Atlas41%
×Draw26%
Necaxa33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlas
1.42
Necaxa
1.23

Atlas creates 15% more chances

Season form · 141 home / 139 away

creates per match

Atlas
1.12
Necaxa
1.27

allows per match

Atlas
1.20
Necaxa
1.71

finishing

Atlas+0.00on par
Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlas ↓

Necaxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Atlas or draw
67%
Atlas or Necaxa
74%
Draw or Necaxa
59%

Winning margin

Atlas wins by 2+
20%
Necaxa wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Atlas 1+ goals
76%
Atlas 2+ goals
41%
Atlas 3+ goals
17%
Necaxa 1+ goals
71%
Necaxa 2+ goals
35%
Necaxa 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Atlas (draw refunded)
56%
Necaxa (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlas at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.20 · 141 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.71 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlas attack 1.12 + Necaxa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.42

Necaxa attack 1.27 + Atlas defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Atlas scores more
41%
level
26%
Necaxa scores more
33%

Atlas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atlas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
J. FurchAtlasAtlas · F
8.6

Match Events

43'
J. Furch↳ J. Abella
45+2'
Alexis Peña
46'
F. Meza← R. González
46'
J. Escoboza← A. Medina
49'
R. Aguirre↳ D. Villalpando
58'
Fernando Meza
62'
Luis ReyesPenalty cancelled
65'
A. Palma← H. Jurado
68'
C. Trejo← I. Torres
72'
J. Quiñones↳ J. Furch
80'
J. Herrera← J. Quiñones
81'
A. Chalá← L. Reyes
81'
E. Zaldivar← Á. Márquez
81'
M. Giménez← F. Madrigal

Possession

49%Atlas

Shots

21Atlas

Pass accuracy

47%Atlas

Statistics

AtlasNecaxa
Overview
49%Possession51%
21Total Shots11
5Corners5
7Fouls17
Shots
21Total Shots11
8On Target4
9Off Target4
4Blocked3
13Inside Box5
8Outside Box6
Passing
49%Possession51%
300Total Passes319
208Accurate Passes248
69%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
Discipline
7Fouls17
0Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Liga MX: Atlas 2–1 Necaxa

Atlas beat Necaxa 2-1 in Liga MX on April 8, 2022.

Goals: J. Furch (43'), R. Aguirre (49'), J. Quiñones (72').

Necaxa controlled possession (51%) and registered 11 shots to 21.

The match was played at Estadio Jalisco in Guadalajara.