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Atlas vs Lobos Buap — Liga MX 2018

Atlas
Atlas
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lobos Buap
Lobos Buap
1/26/2019Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 4Estadio Jalisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atlas50%
×Draw25%
Lobos Buap25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlas
1.56
Lobos Buap
1.03

Atlas creates 51% more chances

Season form · 142 home / 17 away

creates per match

Atlas
1.12
Lobos Buap
0.88

allows per match

Atlas
1.19
Lobos Buap
2.00

finishing

Atlas+0.00on par
Lobos Buap+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlas ↓

Lobos Buap →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atlas or draw
75%
Atlas or Lobos Buap
75%
Draw or Lobos Buap
50%

Winning margin

Atlas wins by 2+
26%
Lobos Buap wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atlas 1+ goals
79%
Atlas 2+ goals
46%
Atlas 3+ goals
21%
Lobos Buap 1+ goals
64%
Lobos Buap 2+ goals
28%
Lobos Buap 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Atlas (draw refunded)
66%
Lobos Buap (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlas at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.19 · 142 matches

Lobos Buap away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlas attack 1.12 + Lobos Buap defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Lobos Buap attack 0.88 + Atlas defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Atlas scores more
50%
level
25%
Lobos Buap scores more
25%

Atlas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Atlas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Atlas 3–1 Lobos Buap

Atlas beat Lobos Buap 3-1 in Liga MX on January 26, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Jalisco in Guadalajara.