Atlas vs Leon — Liga MX 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 36+ matches
Atlas47%
Leon29%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Atlas creates 34% more chances
Season form · 36 home / 38 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes57
- No43
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Atlas ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Atlas at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.42 · 36 matches
Leon away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.92 · 38 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Atlas attack 1.39 + Leon defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.65
Leon attack 1.05 + Atlas defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.23
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
Atlas at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "Atlas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Toluca
Club America
Cruz Azul
Tigres UANL
NecaxaLeon
Monterrey
Pachuca
FC Juarez
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Guadalajara Chivas
Club Queretaro
Club TijuanaAtlas
Atletico San Luis
Mazatlán
Puebla
Santos LagunaCruz AzulTolucaTigres UANLU.N.A.M. - PumasMonterreyAtletico San LuisClub TijuanaClub AmericaGuadalajara ChivasAtlasLeonFC JuarezNecaxaMazatlánPueblaPachucaClub QueretaroSantos LagunaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Atlas host Leon on Sunday, 19 January 2025 at 03:00. The match is part of the Liga MX 2019/2020 season.
Liga MX: Atlas 1–2 Leon
Leon beat Atlas 2-1 in Liga MX on January 19, 2025.
Goals: E. Aguirre (62'), A. Frías (81' pen), J. Cádiz (90+5').
Atlas controlled possession (54%) and registered 12 shots to 13.
The match was played at Estadio Jalisco in Guadalajara.