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Atlas vs Club Tijuana — Liga MX 2026

Atlas
Atlas
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Club Tijuana
Club Tijuana
10/27/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 14Estadio Jalisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Atlas49%
×Draw26%
Club Tijuana26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlas
1.52
Club Tijuana
1.03

Atlas creates 48% more chances

Season form · 142 home / 135 away

creates per match

Atlas
1.12
Club Tijuana
0.88

allows per match

Atlas
1.19
Club Tijuana
1.92

finishing

Atlas+0.00on par
Club Tijuana+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlas ↓

Club Tijuana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlas or draw
74%
Atlas or Club Tijuana
74%
Draw or Club Tijuana
51%

Winning margin

Atlas wins by 2+
25%
Club Tijuana wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atlas 1+ goals
78%
Atlas 2+ goals
45%
Atlas 3+ goals
20%
Club Tijuana 1+ goals
64%
Club Tijuana 2+ goals
28%
Club Tijuana 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Atlas (draw refunded)
65%
Club Tijuana (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlas at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.19 · 142 matches

Club Tijuana away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.92 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlas attack 1.12 + Club Tijuana defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.52

Club Tijuana attack 0.88 + Atlas defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atlas scores more
49%
level
26%
Club Tijuana scores more
26%

Atlas at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atlas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Atlas 0–0 Club Tijuana

Atlas and Club Tijuana drew 0-0 in Liga MX on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Jalisco in Guadalajara.