Atlas 1–1 Atletico San Luis: Result & Stats

Atlas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Atletico San Luis

1/3/2025

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Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Atlas36%

×Draw26%

Atletico San Luis38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtlasExpected goals in this matchAtletico San Luis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.33

Atlas

1.29

Atletico San Luis

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

1.33

creates per match

1.00

1.67

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Atlas

1.33

Atletico San Luis

1.00

allows per match

Atlas

1.67

Atletico San Luis

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlas+0.00on par

Atletico San Luis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlas ↓

Atletico San Luis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atlas or draw

62%

Atlas or Atletico San Luis

74%

Draw or Atletico San Luis

64%

Winning margin

Atlas wins by 2+

16%

Atletico San Luis wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Atlas 1+ goals

72%

Atlas 2+ goals

37%

Atlas 3+ goals

14%

Atletico San Luis 1+ goals

74%

Atletico San Luis 2+ goals

38%

Atletico San Luis 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Atlas (draw refunded)

49%

Atletico San Luis (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlas at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Atletico San Luis away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlas attack 1.33 + Atletico San Luis defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Atletico San Luis attack 1.00 + Atlas defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atlas scores more

36%

level

26%

Atletico San Luis scores more

38%

Atletico San Luis at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atletico San Luis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Atlas

Atletico

Manager: Diego Cocca

Manager: Guillermo Abascal