Atlas Delmenhorst 1–6 Werder Bremen: Result & Stats

Atlas Delmenhorst

FT

1 – 6

HT: 1 – 4

Werder Bremen

T. Schmidt 30'

C. Pizarro 74', 68'

D. Klaassen 40'

M. Rashica 37'

N. Moisander 19'

Y. Ōsako 10'

8/10/2019

DFB Pokal · 1st Roundwohninvest WESERSTADION

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Atlas Delmenhorst9%

×Draw12%

Werder Bremen80%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlas DelmenhorstExpected goals in this matchWerder Bremen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

3.44

Atlas Delmenhorst

1.10

Werder Bremen

3.44

Werder Bremen creates 213% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

1.00

creates per match

2.20

4.67

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Atlas Delmenhorst

1.00

Werder Bremen

2.20

allows per match

Atlas Delmenhorst

4.67

Werder Bremen

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlas Delmenhorst+0.00on par

Werder Bremen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlas Delmenhorst ↓

Werder Bremen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–27%

0–38%

0–47%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Atlas Delmenhorst or draw

20%

Atlas Delmenhorst or Werder Bremen

88%

Draw or Werder Bremen

91%

Winning margin

Atlas Delmenhorst wins by 2+

3%

Werder Bremen wins by 2+

62%

Team goals

Atlas Delmenhorst 1+ goals

67%

Atlas Delmenhorst 2+ goals

30%

Atlas Delmenhorst 3+ goals

10%

Werder Bremen 1+ goals

97%

Werder Bremen 2+ goals

85%

Werder Bremen 3+ goals

65%

Draw no bet

Atlas Delmenhorst (draw refunded)

10%

Werder Bremen (draw refunded)

90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlas Delmenhorst at home — creates 1.00, concedes 4.67 · 3 matches

Werder Bremen away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlas Delmenhorst attack 1.00 + Werder Bremen defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Werder Bremen attack 2.20 + Atlas Delmenhorst defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 3.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Atlas Delmenhorst scores more

9%

level

12%

Werder Bremen scores more

80%

Werder Bremen at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Werder Bremen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

C. Pizarro

Werder Bremen · F

8.9

Match Events

10'

Y. Ōsako↳ T. Gebre Selassie

19'

N. Moisander↳ Y. Ōsako

30'

T. Schmidt

37'

M. Rashica↳ C. Groß

40'

D. Klaassen↳ M. Friedl

43'

Marco Friedl

45'

Florian Stütz

46'

K. Möhwald← M. Friedl

62'

N. Füllkrug← J. Sargent

65'

C. Pizarro← Y. Ōsako

68'

C. Pizarro↳ N. Füllkrug

73'

T. Hein← M. Karli

74'

C. Pizarro↳ N. Şahin

76'

Tom Schmidt

77'

R. Plichta← M. Prießner

81'

K. Radke← M. Osei

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtlasWerder

Overview

21%Possession79%

7Total Shots29

4Corners5

11Fouls9

Shots

7Total Shots29

2On Target13

2Off Target9

3Blocked7

4Inside Box19

3Outside Box10

Passing

21%Possession79%

214Total Passes801

134Accurate Passes730

63%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

7Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides4