Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Atlantis vs PeKa — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

Atlantis
Atlantis
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
PeKa
PeKa
10/1/2022Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 14Kartano tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Atlantis66%
×Draw17%
PeKa17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlantis
2.66
PeKa
1.29

Atlantis creates 106% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 22 away

creates per match

Atlantis
2.31
PeKa
1.27

allows per match

Atlantis
1.31
PeKa
3.00

finishing

Atlantis+0.00on par
PeKa+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlantis ↓

PeKa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Atlantis or draw
83%
Atlantis or PeKa
83%
Draw or PeKa
34%

Winning margin

Atlantis wins by 2+
45%
PeKa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atlantis 1+ goals
93%
Atlantis 2+ goals
74%
Atlantis 3+ goals
49%
PeKa 1+ goals
72%
PeKa 2+ goals
37%
PeKa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Atlantis (draw refunded)
80%
PeKa (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlantis at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

PeKa away — creates 1.27, concedes 3.00 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlantis attack 2.31 + PeKa defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.66

PeKa attack 1.27 + Atlantis defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Atlantis scores more
66%
level
17%
PeKa scores more
17%

Atlantis at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Atlantis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko A: Atlantis 4–1 PeKa

Atlantis beat PeKa 4-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Kartano tekonurmi in Helsinki.