Atlantis 2–2 Klubi-04: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

Atlantis

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Klubi-04

Jean 68' (pen)

H. Mohamed 36'

P. Mentu 15'

V. Vuorinen 11'

5/26/2024

Ykkönen · Round 8Algeco Areena TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Atlantis42%

×Draw23%

Klubi-0435%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtlantisExpected goals in this matchKlubi-04

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.54

Atlantis

1.69

Klubi-04

1.54

Atlantis creates 10% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 34 away

1.65

creates per match

1.50

1.58

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Atlantis

1.65

Klubi-04

1.50

allows per match

Atlantis

1.58

Klubi-04

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlantis+0.00on par

Klubi-04+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlantis ↓

Klubi-04 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Atlantis or draw

65%

Atlantis or Klubi-04

77%

Draw or Klubi-04

58%

Winning margin

Atlantis wins by 2+

21%

Klubi-04 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Atlantis 1+ goals

82%

Atlantis 2+ goals

50%

Atlantis 3+ goals

24%

Klubi-04 1+ goals

79%

Klubi-04 2+ goals

45%

Klubi-04 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Atlantis (draw refunded)

54%

Klubi-04 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlantis at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.58 · 26 matches

Klubi-04 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.74 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlantis attack 1.65 + Klubi-04 defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.69

Klubi-04 attack 1.50 + Atlantis defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Atlantis scores more

42%

level

23%

Klubi-04 scores more

35%

Atlantis at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Atlantis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

15'

17'

31'

36'

46'

D. Rudenko← M. Sorvali

46'

M. Severino← S. Salau

46'

C. Katashira← Y. Arakaki

54'

A. Achenchab

66'

N. Ndaziramiye← H. Mohamed

67'

S. Baranov

68'

JeanPenalty

69'

E. Vauhkonen← S. Baranov

72'

E. Ingman← A. Berisha

75'

E. Ingman

82'

A. Mehmeti← A. Achenchab

89'

P. Mentu

Atlantis

Klubi-04

78

Ramula

91

⚽

62

61

47

63

59

64

54

⚽

Mentu

72

▼

Berisha

95

▼

77

4

2

8

▼

Achenchab

22

Jokiniemi

34

▼

Arakaki

17

⚽

▼

Mohamed

16

▼

Sorvali

30

Mansaray

12

⚽

Jean

20

▼

Salau

Manager: Tiago Santos

46'▲D. Rudenko←▼M. Sorvali

46'▲M. Severino←▼S. Salau

46'▲C. Katashira←▼Y. Arakaki

66'▲N. Ndaziramiye←▼H. Mohamed

82'▲A. Mehmeti←▼A. Achenchab

Atlantis substitutes

6Rudenko11Severino18Katashira24Ndaziramiye70Mehmeti45Fazli93Ziprus

Manager: A. Lalli

69'▲E. Vauhkonen←▼S. Baranov

72'▲E. Ingman←▼A. Berisha

Klubi-04 substitutes

87Vauhkonen67Ingman89Azabani94Mero96Grönblom98Lietsa68Nylund

Match Recap: Atlantis vs Klubi-04

Atlantis and Klubi-04 drew 2-2 in Ykkönen on May 26, 2024.

Goals: V. Vuorinen (11'), P. Mentu (15'), H. Mohamed (36'), Jean (68' pen).

The match was played at Algeco Areena TN in Helsinki.

Atlantis vs Klubi-04 — Ykkönen 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Atlantis vs Klubi-04