Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Atlantis II vs MyPa — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2026

Atlantis II
Atlantis II
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
MyPa
MyPa
5/13/2024Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 5Talin jalkapallohalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Atlantis II47%
×Draw22%
MyPa32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlantis II
2.01
MyPa
1.64

Atlantis II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 45 away

creates per match

Atlantis II
1.50
MyPa
1.58

allows per match

Atlantis II
1.70
MyPa
2.53

finishing

Atlantis II+0.00on par
MyPa+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlantis II ↓

MyPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Atlantis II or draw
68%
Atlantis II or MyPa
78%
Draw or MyPa
53%

Winning margin

Atlantis II wins by 2+
26%
MyPa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Atlantis II 1+ goals
87%
Atlantis II 2+ goals
59%
Atlantis II 3+ goals
32%
MyPa 1+ goals
81%
MyPa 2+ goals
49%
MyPa 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Atlantis II (draw refunded)
59%
MyPa (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlantis II at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.70 · 20 matches

MyPa away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.53 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlantis II attack 1.50 + MyPa defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.01

MyPa attack 1.58 + Atlantis II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Atlantis II scores more
47%
level
22%
MyPa scores more
32%

Atlantis II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Atlantis II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko A: Atlantis II 5–1 MyPa

Atlantis II beat MyPa 5-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on May 13, 2024.

The match was played at Talin jalkapallohalli in Helsinki.