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Atlántico vs Vega Real — Liga Mayor 2020

Atlántico
Atlántico
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vega Real
Vega Real
7/6/2024Liga MayorLiga Mayor · Round 9Estadio Leonel Placido

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Atlántico40%
×Draw26%
Vega Real34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlántico
1.37
Vega Real
1.25

Atlántico creates 10% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 67 away

creates per match

Atlántico
1.31
Vega Real
0.99

allows per match

Atlántico
1.51
Vega Real
1.43

finishing

Atlántico+0.00on par
Vega Real+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlántico ↓

Vega Real →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atlántico or draw
66%
Atlántico or Vega Real
74%
Draw or Vega Real
60%

Winning margin

Atlántico wins by 2+
18%
Vega Real wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Atlántico 1+ goals
75%
Atlántico 2+ goals
40%
Atlántico 3+ goals
16%
Vega Real 1+ goals
71%
Vega Real 2+ goals
36%
Vega Real 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Atlántico (draw refunded)
54%
Vega Real (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlántico at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

Vega Real away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.43 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlántico attack 1.31 + Vega Real defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.37

Vega Real attack 0.99 + Atlántico defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Atlántico scores more
40%
level
26%
Vega Real scores more
34%

Atlántico at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atlántico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlántico vs Vega Real

Atlántico and Vega Real drew 0-0 in Liga Mayor on July 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Leonel Placido in Puerto Plata.