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Atlántico vs Atlético de SF — Liga Mayor 2020

Atlántico
Atlántico
FT
3 – 1
Atlético de SF
Atlético de SF
D. Batista 84'
O. Becerra 42', 19' (pen)
L. Polanco 3'
5/7/2021Liga MayorLiga Mayor · Round 4Estadio Cibao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Atlántico59%
×Draw21%
Atlético de SF20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlántico
2.04
Atlético de SF
1.09

Atlántico creates 87% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 9 away

creates per match

Atlántico
1.31
Atlético de SF
0.67

allows per match

Atlántico
1.51
Atlético de SF
2.78

finishing

Atlántico+0.00on par
Atlético de SF+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlántico ↓

Atlético de SF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Atlántico or draw
80%
Atlántico or Atlético de SF
79%
Draw or Atlético de SF
41%

Winning margin

Atlántico wins by 2+
36%
Atlético de SF wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atlántico 1+ goals
87%
Atlántico 2+ goals
60%
Atlántico 3+ goals
33%
Atlético de SF 1+ goals
66%
Atlético de SF 2+ goals
30%
Atlético de SF 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atlántico (draw refunded)
75%
Atlético de SF (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlántico at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

Atlético de SF away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlántico attack 1.31 + Atlético de SF defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.04

Atlético de SF attack 0.67 + Atlántico defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Atlántico scores more
59%
level
21%
Atlético de SF scores more
20%

Atlántico at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Atlántico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
L. Polanco
19'
O. BecerraPenalty
42'
O. Becerra
84'
D. Batista

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlántico vs Atlético de SF

Atlántico beat Atlético de SF 3-1 in Liga Mayor on May 7, 2021.

Goals: L. Polanco (3'), O. Becerra (19' pen, 42'), D. Batista (84').

The match was played at Estadio Cibao in Santiago De Los Caballeros.