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Atlântico U20 vs Ypiranga BA U20 — Baiano U20 2026

Atlântico U20
Atlântico U20
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ypiranga BA U20
Ypiranga BA U20
4/19/2025Baiano U20Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Edgard Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Atlântico U2017%
×Draw22%
Ypiranga BA U2061%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlântico U20
0.85
Ypiranga BA U20
1.86

Ypiranga BA U20 creates 119% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

creates per match

Atlântico U20
0.00
Ypiranga BA U20
0.86

allows per match

Atlântico U20
2.86
Ypiranga BA U20
1.71

finishing

Atlântico U20+0.00on par
Ypiranga BA U20+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlântico U20 ↓

Ypiranga BA U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Atlântico U20 or draw
39%
Atlântico U20 or Ypiranga BA U20
78%
Draw or Ypiranga BA U20
83%

Winning margin

Atlântico U20 wins by 2+
5%
Ypiranga BA U20 wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Atlântico U20 1+ goals
57%
Atlântico U20 2+ goals
21%
Atlântico U20 3+ goals
5%
Ypiranga BA U20 1+ goals
84%
Ypiranga BA U20 2+ goals
55%
Ypiranga BA U20 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Atlântico U20 (draw refunded)
21%
Ypiranga BA U20 (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlântico U20 at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

Ypiranga BA U20 away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlântico U20 attack 0.00 + Ypiranga BA U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Ypiranga BA U20 attack 0.86 + Atlântico U20 defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Atlântico U20 scores more
17%
level
22%
Ypiranga BA U20 scores more
61%

Ypiranga BA U20 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ypiranga BA U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano U20: Atlântico U20 0–1 Ypiranga BA U20

Ypiranga BA U20 beat Atlântico U20 1-0 in Baiano U20 on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Edgard Santos in Simões Filho, Bahia.