Atlântico U20 0–1 Leonico U20: Result & Stats

Atlântico U20

FT

0 – 1

Leonico U20

4/26/2025

Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Edgard Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Atlântico U2031%

×Draw23%

Leonico U2046%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlântico U20Expected goals in this matchLeonico U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.80

Atlântico U20

1.45

Leonico U20

1.80

Leonico U20 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 20 away

0.00

creates per match

0.75

2.86

allows per match

2.90

creates per match

Atlântico U20

0.00

Leonico U20

0.75

allows per match

Atlântico U20

2.86

Leonico U20

2.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlântico U20+0.00on par

Leonico U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlântico U20 ↓

Leonico U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Atlântico U20 or draw

54%

Atlântico U20 or Leonico U20

77%

Draw or Leonico U20

69%

Winning margin

Atlântico U20 wins by 2+

14%

Leonico U20 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Atlântico U20 1+ goals

77%

Atlântico U20 2+ goals

42%

Atlântico U20 3+ goals

18%

Leonico U20 1+ goals

83%

Leonico U20 2+ goals

54%

Leonico U20 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Atlântico U20 (draw refunded)

40%

Leonico U20 (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlântico U20 at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

Leonico U20 away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlântico U20 attack 0.00 + Leonico U20 defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 1.45

Leonico U20 attack 0.75 + Atlântico U20 defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atlântico U20 scores more

31%

level

23%

Leonico U20 scores more

46%

Leonico U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Leonico U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff