Atlântico U20 0–6 Fluminense de Feira U20

Atlântico U20

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 3

Fluminense de Feira U20

4/5/2025

Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Edgard Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Atlântico U204%

×Draw12%

Fluminense de Feira U2084%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlântico U20Expected goals in this matchFluminense de Feira U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.41

2.57

Atlântico U20

0.41

Fluminense de Feira U20

2.57

Fluminense de Feira U20 creates 527% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 18 away

0.00

creates per match

2.28

2.86

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Atlântico U20

0.00

Fluminense de Feira U20

2.28

allows per match

Atlântico U20

2.86

Fluminense de Feira U20

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlântico U20+0.00on par

Fluminense de Feira U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlântico U20 ↓

Fluminense de Feira U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–113%

0–217%

0–315%

0–49%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–00%

2–11%

2–21%

2–31%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (17%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Atlântico U20 or draw

16%

Atlântico U20 or Fluminense de Feira U20

88%

Draw or Fluminense de Feira U20

96%

Winning margin

Atlântico U20 wins by 2+

1%

Fluminense de Feira U20 wins by 2+

62%

Team goals

Atlântico U20 1+ goals

34%

Atlântico U20 2+ goals

6%

Atlântico U20 3+ goals

1%

Fluminense de Feira U20 1+ goals

92%

Fluminense de Feira U20 2+ goals

72%

Fluminense de Feira U20 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

Atlântico U20 (draw refunded)

5%

Fluminense de Feira U20 (draw refunded)

95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlântico U20 at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

Fluminense de Feira U20 away — creates 2.28, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlântico U20 attack 0.00 + Fluminense de Feira U20 defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.41

Fluminense de Feira U20 attack 2.28 + Atlântico U20 defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Atlântico U20 scores more

4%

level

12%

Fluminense de Feira U20 scores more

84%

Fluminense de Feira U20 at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Fluminense de Feira U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff