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Atlântico U20 vs Feirense U20 — Baiano U20 2026

Atlântico U20
Atlântico U20
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Feirense U20
Feirense U20
6/28/2025Baiano U20Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 14Estádio Edgard Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Atlântico U2021%
×Draw23%
Feirense U2056%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlântico U20
1.00
Feirense U20
1.79

Feirense U20 creates 79% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

creates per match

Atlântico U20
0.00
Feirense U20
0.73

allows per match

Atlântico U20
2.86
Feirense U20
2.00

finishing

Atlântico U20+0.00on par
Feirense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlântico U20 ↓

Feirense U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Atlântico U20 or draw
44%
Atlântico U20 or Feirense U20
77%
Draw or Feirense U20
79%

Winning margin

Atlântico U20 wins by 2+
7%
Feirense U20 wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Atlântico U20 1+ goals
63%
Atlântico U20 2+ goals
26%
Atlântico U20 3+ goals
8%
Feirense U20 1+ goals
83%
Feirense U20 2+ goals
53%
Feirense U20 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Atlântico U20 (draw refunded)
27%
Feirense U20 (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlântico U20 at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

Feirense U20 away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlântico U20 attack 0.00 + Feirense U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Feirense U20 attack 0.73 + Atlântico U20 defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Atlântico U20 scores more
21%
level
23%
Feirense U20 scores more
56%

Feirense U20 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Feirense U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano U20: Atlântico U20 0–4 Feirense U20

Feirense U20 beat Atlântico U20 4-0 in Baiano U20 on June 28, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Edgard Santos in Simões Filho, Bahia.