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Atlântico U20 vs Estrela De Marco U20 — Baiano U20 2026

Atlântico U20
Atlântico U20
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Estrela De Marco U20
Estrela De Marco U20
6/7/2025Baiano U20Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 12Estádio Edgard Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Atlântico U208%
×Draw18%
Estrela De Marco U2074%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlântico U20
0.50
Estrela De Marco U20
2.03

Estrela De Marco U20 creates 306% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 25 away

creates per match

Atlântico U20
0.00
Estrela De Marco U20
1.20

allows per match

Atlântico U20
2.86
Estrela De Marco U20
1.00

finishing

Atlântico U20+0.00on par
Estrela De Marco U20+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlântico U20 ↓

Estrela De Marco U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–116%
0–216%
0–311%
0–46%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlântico U20 or draw
26%
Atlântico U20 or Estrela De Marco U20
82%
Draw or Estrela De Marco U20
92%

Winning margin

Atlântico U20 wins by 2+
2%
Estrela De Marco U20 wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Atlântico U20 1+ goals
39%
Atlântico U20 2+ goals
9%
Atlântico U20 3+ goals
1%
Estrela De Marco U20 1+ goals
87%
Estrela De Marco U20 2+ goals
60%
Estrela De Marco U20 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Atlântico U20 (draw refunded)
10%
Estrela De Marco U20 (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlântico U20 at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

Estrela De Marco U20 away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlântico U20 attack 0.00 + Estrela De Marco U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

Estrela De Marco U20 attack 1.20 + Atlântico U20 defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Atlântico U20 scores more
8%
level
18%
Estrela De Marco U20 scores more
74%

Estrela De Marco U20 at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Estrela De Marco U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlântico U20 vs Estrela De Marco U20

Estrela De Marco U20 beat Atlântico U20 2-0 in Baiano U20 on June 7, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Edgard Santos in Simões Filho, Bahia.