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Atlantic vs Unisport Bafang — Elite Two 2020

Atlantic
Atlantic
CANC
14:00
Unisport Bafang
Unisport Bafang
1/11/2025Elite TwoElite Two · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Atlantic45%
×Draw28%
Unisport Bafang27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlantic
1.29
Unisport Bafang
0.92

Atlantic creates 40% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Atlantic
1.53
Unisport Bafang
1.05

allows per match

Atlantic
0.79
Unisport Bafang
1.05

finishing

Atlantic+0.00on par
Unisport Bafang+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlantic ↓

Unisport Bafang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Atlantic or draw
73%
Atlantic or Unisport Bafang
72%
Draw or Unisport Bafang
55%

Winning margin

Atlantic wins by 2+
21%
Unisport Bafang wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atlantic 1+ goals
72%
Atlantic 2+ goals
37%
Atlantic 3+ goals
14%
Unisport Bafang 1+ goals
60%
Unisport Bafang 2+ goals
23%
Unisport Bafang 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atlantic (draw refunded)
63%
Unisport Bafang (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlantic at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

Unisport Bafang away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlantic attack 1.53 + Unisport Bafang defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.29

Unisport Bafang attack 1.05 + Atlantic defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atlantic scores more
45%
level
28%
Unisport Bafang scores more
27%

Atlantic at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atlantic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlantic vs Unisport Bafang — Match Preview

Atlantic face Unisport Bafang on January 11, 2025 in this Elite Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.