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Atlantic vs Union Douala — Elite Two 2020

Atlantic
Atlantic
FT
1 – 0
Union Douala
Union Douala
3/8/2026Elite TwoElite Two · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Atlantic56%
×Draw22%
Union Douala22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlantic
1.94
Union Douala
1.12

Atlantic creates 73% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 11 away

creates per match

Atlantic
1.53
Union Douala
1.45

allows per match

Atlantic
0.79
Union Douala
2.36

finishing

Atlantic+0.00on par
Union Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlantic ↓

Union Douala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Atlantic or draw
78%
Atlantic or Union Douala
78%
Draw or Union Douala
44%

Winning margin

Atlantic wins by 2+
33%
Union Douala wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Atlantic 1+ goals
86%
Atlantic 2+ goals
58%
Atlantic 3+ goals
30%
Union Douala 1+ goals
67%
Union Douala 2+ goals
31%
Union Douala 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atlantic (draw refunded)
72%
Union Douala (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlantic at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

Union Douala away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlantic attack 1.53 + Union Douala defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.94

Union Douala attack 1.45 + Atlantic defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Atlantic scores more
56%
level
22%
Union Douala scores more
22%

Atlantic at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Atlantic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Atlantic 1–0 Union Douala

Atlantic beat Union Douala 1-0 in Elite Two on March 8, 2026.