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Atlantic vs Eding Sport — Elite Two 2020

Atlantic
Atlantic
FT
1 – 1
Eding Sport
Eding Sport
1/31/2026Elite TwoElite Two · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Atlantic49%
×Draw27%
Eding Sport23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlantic
1.39
Eding Sport
0.86

Atlantic creates 62% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 28 away

creates per match

Atlantic
1.53
Eding Sport
0.93

allows per match

Atlantic
0.79
Eding Sport
1.25

finishing

Atlantic+0.00on par
Eding Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlantic ↓

Eding Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atlantic or draw
77%
Atlantic or Eding Sport
73%
Draw or Eding Sport
51%

Winning margin

Atlantic wins by 2+
24%
Eding Sport wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Atlantic 1+ goals
75%
Atlantic 2+ goals
40%
Atlantic 3+ goals
16%
Eding Sport 1+ goals
58%
Eding Sport 2+ goals
21%
Eding Sport 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Atlantic (draw refunded)
68%
Eding Sport (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlantic at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

Eding Sport away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlantic attack 1.53 + Eding Sport defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.39

Eding Sport attack 0.93 + Atlantic defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atlantic scores more
49%
level
27%
Eding Sport scores more
23%

Atlantic at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atlantic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Atlantic 1–1 Eding Sport

Atlantic and Eding Sport drew 1-1 in Elite Two on January 31, 2026.