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Atlantic vs Avion Academy — Elite Two 2020

Atlantic
Atlantic
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Avion Academy
Avion Academy
3/16/2025Elite TwoElite Two · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Atlantic47%
×Draw27%
Avion Academy26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlantic
1.40
Avion Academy
0.95

Atlantic creates 47% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Atlantic
1.53
Avion Academy
1.11

allows per match

Atlantic
0.79
Avion Academy
1.26

finishing

Atlantic+0.00on par
Avion Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlantic ↓

Avion Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atlantic or draw
74%
Atlantic or Avion Academy
73%
Draw or Avion Academy
53%

Winning margin

Atlantic wins by 2+
23%
Avion Academy wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Atlantic 1+ goals
75%
Atlantic 2+ goals
41%
Atlantic 3+ goals
17%
Avion Academy 1+ goals
61%
Avion Academy 2+ goals
25%
Avion Academy 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atlantic (draw refunded)
65%
Avion Academy (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlantic at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

Avion Academy away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlantic attack 1.53 + Avion Academy defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.40

Avion Academy attack 1.11 + Atlantic defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Atlantic scores more
47%
level
27%
Avion Academy scores more
26%

Atlantic at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Atlantic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlantic vs Avion Academy

Atlantic beat Avion Academy 2-0 in Elite Two on March 16, 2025.